The theory argues that people who feel their opinion is held by the minority tend to fall silent in public. If so, how can this affect the formation of public opinion? Public opinion can be defined as the process whereby opinions or behavior are displayed or expressed in public without running the risk of isolation. In other words, it can be a state of consciousness where individuals, being aware that they are being watched constantly monitor the reactions of others in their environment.
Public opinion can be regarded as a form of social control to everyone, regardless of social class, in many areas of life, from controversial political issues to fashion, morals, and values. We must remember that people to fear social isolation and thus substantially influences their actions in public.Perhaps that is what happened in the campaign period of the Hulu Selangor by-election where many may proclaim support for one particular party when in fact they support the other or some may keep silent for fear of backlash and projected ambivalence when in fact they have already made up their minds.
Personally, I believe it is safer for both sides to be cautiously conservative in their projections, even at this stage. One cannot read the mind of the voter for appearances in big numbers may not be accurate as discussed in my post the other day HERE on the herd mentality in the bandwagon effect.
Silence can be deafening but yet, it can have a most unusual effect.
According to Thomas Peterson HERE:
The theory of the spiral of silence was a surprising research finding for which a plausible explanation had to be found. This puzzling finding was encountered in connection with election research conducted during the 1965 German federal election campaign. Months before Election Day in September 1965, Noelle-Neumann and her staff at the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research launched a series of surveys designed to track the entire campaign. Over the course of 10 months, from December 1964 to shortly before Election Day, the survey findings on voting intentions remained practically unchanged. Month after month, the two major parties, the governing Christian Democratic Party and the opposing Social Democratic Party, were in a dead heat, with about 45% of the population intending to vote for each party. Under these circumstances, it seemed impossible to predict which party was most likely to win the election. Throughout the entire campaign, the two parties remained locked in a neck-and-neck race.
Remember - people experience fear of isolation. As such, individuals may show opinions that they know can meet with approval and tend to voice their convictions fearlessly, freely, gladly, and at times vociferously. However, since most people fear isolation, they tend to refrain from publicly stating their position when they perceive that this would attract enraged objections, laughter, scorn, or similar threats of isolation. A spiraling process begins, whereby the dominant camp becomes ever louder and more self-confident, while the other camp falls increasingly silent.
This could be happening in Hulu Selangor especially since the by-election issues overlap with morals, ideology, agitation, and emotions. Moral elements in the by-election campaign empowers public opinion and allows it to levy the threat of isolation that triggers a chain reaction of silence. If there is consensus, all would be well.
The actual strength of BN and PR of does not necessarily determine which view will predominate in public. In reality, an opinion can dominate in public and exert the pressure of isolation upon members especially with the MSM and new media exerting a substantial, influence on the direction of the polls in terms of voting patterns.
Social cohesion may be another factor that could have influenced some voters in that they were pro-establishment with the hope that they can maintain unity.
At this point of time, both sides seem to be confident of victory. Malaysian Insider HERE reported:
Even before polling closes, the Barisan Nasional (BN) says it is confident of victory in today’s Hulu Selangor by-election, with a majority of 6,000 votes targetted by the campaign.
Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said the 6,000-vote target was based on the majority obtained by BN in winning the three state seats within the parliamentary constituency in Election 2008.
“Two years ago we got around 6,000-vote majority from the three state seats so we are placing our KPI target at the same level,” he told reporters here.
Explaining his confidence, the deputy prime minister said that rough estimates showed that BN obtained 300 votes from one ballot box where it only received 100 votes in the last general election.
“But that is only an example,” he said.
Another report HERE says:
Pakatan Rakyat candidate Datuk Zaid Ibrahim laments fraud may narrow his chances of winning the Hulu Selangor by-election today.
The former law minister cited the recent relocation of 13,000 voters by the Election Commission (EC) as an example of how lopsided the contest for the parliamentary seat is.
“It is difficult,” a tired-looking Zaid told reporters while having a short lunch break after visiting several polling stations here.
“Casting a vote is fundamental but if you have the Orang Asli Affairs Department, the police and all this government agencies working for those in power… these are the difficulties,” said the former Umno man.
Opposition leaders claimed BN had manipulated government agencies to solicit support throughout the eight-day campaign trail which Zaid alleged was rife with fraud.
“Fraud means that is something that is not fair and unjust according to election laws,” stressed the Kelantan-born leader.
Asked if this means he has resigned to the fact that defeat is imminent, Zaid denied this, stressing that he remains confident of a win.
He played safe, saying that he will not speculate on the outcome but insisted that the Hulu Selangor voters are behind him.
“All the voters, Malays, Chinese, Indians, are with me,” he said confidently. “It is just a question of whether they are given a chance (to vote fairly),” Zaid complained.
As for the rest of us, I guess we all have to wait with bated breath in finger-nail biting stance for the results to be announced. Perhaps we might see some surprises from the silent ones whom we expected to vote differently. May the outcome be pleasing to Malaysia. May the better candidate win fairly with a convincing margin and may there be peace after the announcement. Both sides should continue to press on to serve the rakyat who must never be a pawn in any chess game.
Ting Winning is only glorious if you play by the rules!
Other than that, ......?