After more than 22 years as Prime Minister, 78-year old Tun Dr.Mahathir stepped down in October 2003 and was succeeded by his deputy, Tun Abdullah Badawi who called for a general election in March 2004 to give him a mandate to rule and to strengthen his hand in the upcoming UMNO elections. At that time, Badawi had hoped he could capitalize on his popularity by holding early elections and projecting himself as being different in substance and style from Mahathir. His main policy pronouncements were a pledge to fight corruption.
UMNO and the BN won convinvingly in an election that heralded the return of the Malay vote, to the disappointment of those who hoped that UMNO’s dominance was waning. The Barisan Nasional won 198 of 219 parliamentary seats (90.4%—the highest ever) with nearly 64% of the popular vote (an increase of 9%). It also won back control of the oil-rich state of Trengganu.
Badawi won with the UMNO/BN advantage of having sufficient funds, strong control over the media control and party machinery. Prior to March 2004, Mahathir had already weakened the opposition. Some Keadilan leaders had been detained under the ISA in that period. Three others were jailed on various charges which meant they were ineligible to stand for election in 2004 while languished in prison. Without leadership and organizational structure, Keadilan won only one seat. At that time, the federal government had rescinded oil royalties to the state, a major source of revenue, when it came under PAS control. UMNO workers were also very successful in getting out the vote in Trengganu—85% of eligible electors voted which was a record turnout.
With that came a strong demand for the fulfillment of economic and consumption expectations that valued political stability above all. Despite the presence of a large, educated middle class in Malaysia, few actually wanted more democratic practices at that time because many were in comfortable positions.
Many were contented to maintain the status quo to protect their positions so to speak. Malays win as their percentage of the population is a more stable majority, nearing 60%. The Malays now are also better educated, more prosperous, and confident than in previous eras.
Through the years, UMNO and the BN became divided andembroiled in issues of corruption, cronyism, and nepotism. Some engaged in patronage to develop their power base and to progress in party hierarchy. Many ventured into business, using the opportunities created by the NEP and UMNO to fund their activities but for some, this led to conflicts of interest and related problems. Business competition led to serious divisions and issues that eroded public trust. Subsequently, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi pledged to crack down on corruption and “money politics,” but faced many barriers.
Despite being widely regarded as "Mr. Clean", in the UMNO elections of October 2004, Badawi did not get many loyalists elected to important party posts. He failed to kick out the old guard which meant he did not have a serious Cabinet reshuffle for a clean house. More factional fights among up-and-comers happened and allowed Mahathir an opening to become active in party matters again. Nepotism reared its ugly head if one had a father, father-in-law, or some relative in the party hierarchy.
The situation inside UMNO is not new, but the rivalry between “rising sons”, the intensity and rancor between the factions, and the escalating financial costs of being a successful factional leader were very real problems. In 2005, 62 high-powered UMNO veterans led by former Deputy Prime Minister Tun Ghafar Baba met to discuss what could be done to save UMNO. They passed a resolution to end “money politics” and to restore democracy in UMNO. They feared that internal infighting could cause UMNO to disintegrate. They also expressed concerns about the economic situation of the Malays and called for efforts to “bring UMNO back to the rural Malays” before it was too late.
Undeniably, certain policies have helped Malay business folks but these fared poorly in achieving equity. Malaysia has one of the worst disparity ratios in wealth and income in the region. Some argued that these policies are benefiting “UMNO-putra” more than others. A UN development report found Malaysia to have one of the worst income disparities in Asia, with the richest 10% earning 22 times more than the poorest 10%. See Ioannis Galsiounis' article HERE. This could lead to Malay anger directed at UMNO in the future.
Although UMNO could overcome challenges in the past, the internal “condition” of UMNO with its inherent problems and changing demographics, may make UMNO dominance vulnerable, especially during an economic downturn, accompanied by wrong moves that alienate rather than befriend the public.
The last two UMNO crises occurred in a more authoritarian Malaysia under the reign of Dr. Mahathir and both led to splits, neither played out entirely according to the rule of law.
UMNO has weathered a number of recent storms and continues its role as a dominant party. It survived various endogenous challenges, such as factionalism, changing ethnic allegiances, rival contenders, inter-generational differences, and leadership transitions and so on. Clearly, UMNO has withstood some severe tests, demonstrating a remarkable capacity to maintain its dominance.
In the near future at least, the political opposition is unlikely to provide the catalyst for a decline in UMNO control. Can Pakatan Rakyat offset political change in Malaysia? Can civil society seeking more democracy generate enough support to undermine UMNO’s dominance? If Pakatan Rakyat does not get its act together at the rate things are moving against the grain, it seems quite a monumental task. If UMNO falls, I believe it is more likely to be driven by internal factors rather than external pressures, at least judging by the way things are moving - I could be wrong as I am just an arm-chair observer.
UMNO has proved itself to be a party that adapts to environmental changes. In the past en route to independence, it socialized itself to the norm of losing as part of the democratic process, but this socialization slowly faded after independence as UMNO came increasingly to equate itself with the state. With the various political changes in the climate now and more to come in the future, will UMNO survive the challenges?
"It appears that as long as UMNO remains identified with an ethos that is relevant for Malays, especially vis-à-vis Islam, and is perceived as “delivering the goods” for Malays and protecting the non-Malays from theocratic rule, its dominance will continue indefinitely. If and when UMNO is no longer relevant to these groups and cannot perform well in power, then it would have little legitimacy for remaining in power if it lost an election. It may be the case that this is when formerly dominant parties bow to the will of the people and must learn to lose." (Mauzy & Barter:29*)
Personally, I believe that it will be internal factionalism and not the threat from Pakatan Rakyat that may lead to further splits in UMNO in the future. So will their dominance ever end? I honestly do not know. Do you?
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* from Political Transitions in Dominant Party Systems, edited by Friedman and Wong
18 comments to WILL THEIR DOMINANCE EVER END?
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Unknown Hi DPP
Hurray for your faith and positive perspective!
Cheers
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Anonymous a malaysian:
Even if their dominance ends what then? Do you honestly think Pakatan Rakyat is up for the job of running this country? Just look how they're running their own party - doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.
What have they done since their momentous results of march 08? For all their big talk about taking over the government on sept 16th 2008, what happened in the end? Nothing...just a load of "hangat hangat tahi ayam". What are they doing? What are they going to do? These are just some of the questions they need to answer if they want the vote. Right now it looks like they're just coasting.
It seems to me that it's no so much a case of people wanting PR to govern but NOT wanting BN to govern. Therefore anything that isn't BN is good enough...not a good way to choose a new government.
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Anonymous Only GOD knows. Let us work towards their down fall soonest.
Nothing is impossible but we, the people must try and In GOD we trust!!!
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Unknown Dear A Malaysian
Good morning to you. You sound very familiar and it seems that I know you. Anyway, thank you for reading the post.
I share the same view as you do as stated in the last few paragraphs of my post.
My penultimate paragraph says is most clearly:
Personally, I believe that it will be internal factionalism and not the threat from Pakatan Rakyat that may lead to further splits in UMNO in the future.
Your view as expressed in your last paragraph is quite true which is why I wrote my post on THE THIRD FORCE. Do check it out if you have time.
Thanks for sharing your view. Have a great week!
Salam
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Unknown Dear Anonymous @ 9.32 am
Indeed what we need is a miracle because the situation seems most challenging now...
Take care and let us continue to uphold our country and our leaders in prayer.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Take care and God bless you and yours.
Shalom
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katdog It is unlikely UMNO will disintegrate from within. As long as the money flows, there will be hundreds of willing sycophants ready to fall into line so that they can partake in the spoils.
In addition, Malaysians are still too comfortable with their lives and many are unwilling to lift a finger to change. Look around us. Many are not registered voters despite multiple urgings. The excuse i hear, its too troublesome. Aiyaa, no point because its difficult for me to go back to hometown to vote so why bother registering?
No. The only way that UMNO dominance will end will be when the money dries up and the 'good times' end.
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Unknown Dear Katdog
In many ways, I also share your view which I mentioned in the 4th and 5th paragraphs of this post.
Many Malaysians are far too complacent for their own good and I have also blogged before that Malaysians are their own worst enemy. What you highlighted about voters is real and a very serious threat to the democratic process. Most worrying.
However, times are bad and your observation in the last paragraph could well come true!
Thanks for sharing your insightful thoughts here. Take care and have a good day!
Best wishes
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stephen Hi MWS, I agree with your analysis and conclusion.In my opinion,the ruling coalition will be here to stay for quite a while.If the opposition fails to remain cohesive and keep going on a trail of self destruction with internal bickering, one upmanship and defections,they will have an uphill battle to keep their seats let alone gain further ground in the next GE.
A revived BN with strengthened component parties able to attract and bring the minority races back to the fold will make the going even tougher.
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InjusticeSistem In Malaysia, we will never have the luxury of choosing the best. What we have is choosing the least evil, choosing the least rotten of all the rotten apples. Why PR will never take over, its becos :-
1) The poor mis-informed citizen will see UMNO as their savior. They will continue to vote BN.
2) The middle educated class will see Pakatan Rakyat unable to control the ex-UMNO warlords in PKR. Some will vote PR while others will choose to migrate, making PR lose more n more votes.
3) The rich will continue to support cronyism nepotism. No prize for guessing who they will vote.
The best thing to do right now is to be corrupted and plunder as much as possible and buy an Australian citizenship via investment migration scheme.
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Unknown Dear Stephen
Thanks for hearing me. I wrote this post to show the opposition that they had better stop bickering amongst themselves if they intend to march to Putrajaya.
Unless they purge themselves of liabilities, unless leaders learn to put a bridle over their tongue, all this talk about taking over will remain nothing but a pipe dream.
You are definitely right. Despite their weaknesses, too often - people forget that BN is able to reinvent itself and to strategize for reinforcement and damage control. It is PR which has that problem.
As such, I wrote this post with a very heavy heart indeed.
I hope PR leaders will seriously take the bull by its horns and stop treading on eggshells!
As for the rest of us, we just have to watch and pray for the best.
Take care and have a blessed week.
Cheers
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Unknown Dear InjusticeSistem
How true your words ring in my ear!
Your three well-reasoned statements are spot on!
Idealistic as I may be, I earnestly hope that people will put an end to corruption and stay to make our nation a better place.
Sighs. A formidable task indeed. The older folks like me can just watch, pray and hope for the best.
The youth had better take note and start thinking collectively and to build a cohesive national identity.
So much to do and yet...
Take care and have a blessed week.
Best wishes
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ahyam Aiyoyo ... you are NOT "just an arm-chair observer".
After reading through this article , my fifth, your exposition and your description are deadly accurate ... this ... my wager!
Without any shadow of doubt , their 'dominance' will surely end,
And all Malaysians will surely rightfully win and gain!
The midnight oil that you burned day in and day out will surely benefit the 'rakyat',
But please do take care of your health ... this is my plea and the 'hakikat'!
No matter what ... with all their evil, immoral and hypocritical tricks and scheming,
Pakatan will ultimately triumph with Heaven's blessing!
We all wholeheartedly thank 'the arm-chair observer' for her tireless effort,
And we all know you are never the one to betray or to shirk!
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semuanya OK kot * Most of the energy of political work is devoted to correcting the effects of mismanagement of government. - Prof. Milton Friedman
* Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan, 1961
* Despite material wealth, health breakthroughs, and birth control methods which could end want and war, society is organized almost exactly as it was 500 years ago. Authority and power are distributed in hierarchical oligarchies, arranged regionally and maintained by complex feedback loops of wealth, loyalty, patronage, and control of the news. - Prof. Jordan Pollack, 2002, adapted
* Majority rule only works [with] individual rights… You can't have 5 wolves and 1 sheep voting on what to have for supper. - Larry Flynt
I am reminded of the scene in Animal Farm by George Orwell: while the other animals outside the house look on with dismay, the pigs are celebrating and plotting indoors with their former 2-legs-bad enemies.
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Unknown Dear ahyam
Many thanks for your supportive and encouraging comments plus your concern for this oledi's health :-).
My heart is deeply warmed by your persistent confidence and faith. What remains is for the Pakatan leaders to get their act together and train their members to zip their mouths when it comes to sensitive issues.
Thanks for reading and for injecting hope into this blog!
God bless you and yours always.
Best wishes
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Unknown Dear Semuanya OK kot
My appreciation to you for the meaningful quotations that you shared with us today.
Orwell's Animal Farm is a firm favorite of mine and I always wonder how close to home it sounds. Am glad you think likewise.
Take care and have a good week.
Cheers
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Anonymous the zzzzpm is the worst like the overnite 'yau char koay' !!
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Unknown Dear Anon @ 6.23pm
What a revolting thought!!! How true too!
Take care and have a good rest...
Cheers
Donplaypuks® Have no fear. Their end will be soon enough!
dpp
We are all of 1 race, the Human Race