After 11 by-elections and a string of defections, it almost appears that many are weary, discouraged and have lost hope. We cannot afford to do that. The old adage tells us that when the going gets tough, the tough get going.
I tend to concur with Bridget Welsh who said HERE that "this contest provides a chance to stem the momentum of the BN in gaining support, further forge relations among the opposition component parties and even the score in the now increasingly important and contested marker of two-thirds in Parliament due to PKR defections."
We can see that BN has been gaining momentum with a string of achievements even those these have been criticized at length by many and bulldozed to ground zero by the more articulate ones. These include 1Malaysia campaign, the recent announcement HERE that Malaysia's Q1 GDP has
expanded by 10.1 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, its fastest pace in 10 years, signalling that recovery is firmly on track for this trade dependent Southeast Asian country.
At the same time, worrying signs such as defections from PKR, statements by PERKASA and other persons, the Anwar Sodomy II trial, the postponed rally in Trengganu and other developments have made some quarters even more determined to walk with PR in their endeavor to complete their journey to Putrajaya.
However, the topic of the weekend is Sibu. At the tip of our tongues would be "Who will win?".
I surmise that Sibu is a different cup of tea from Hulu Selangor because of the cultural, economic, social and religious background of the electorate. As a very conservative town, Sibuans are more concerned with the economic climate of the area and upholding basic values such as filial piety and religious practices.
With the current dismal economic situation, things are not too bright in Sibu as the main money spinner in the area - the timber industry, has been shrinking. This means that employment opportunities are now scarcer with low wages.
Almost every Sarawakian is well aware of the NCR issue. This coupled with many political issues such as the 'Allah' issue, the Bible issue Taib's empire infighting within SUPP, smuggling and other factors including rising costs of living and poverty (don't forget the paradox that even though Sarawak is the richest state in terms of resources, its people are amongs the poorest) give an indication that the voting could go either way. Why?
On one hand, it is obvious that Sibu needs a boost to the next level of development from the stagnation it is experiencing now. While BN can offer this verbally, to what extent do Sibuans believe the promises being made at ceramahs?
Bridget Welsh said:
The role that the state and federal government will play in the economic expansion of the town is more opaque than it was earlier, pointing to a real challenge for BN to show that it can deliver new concrete development opportunities.
Sibu, like many Malaysian towns, is full of potential and awaiting investment, despite the fact that its tycoons are concentrating on their investments elsewhere.
Politically, the ties to the state government are also no longer as central as they once were, as the reliance on state contracts has ebbed. Many, although not all, businessmen are investing outside of the state and increasingly operating independently.
We have seen how BN has pumped in 18million ringgit to Chinese schools which is a sharp contrast to the 926 000RM to the Iban community. What BN has forgotten is that there is an increasing number of Chinese Sarawakians who have joined DAP, even more Dayaks who are unhappy because of issues that affect them and how their land is being taken away from right under their noses while a great many still live in poverty. For the Malays in Sibu, I am sure they must be wondering as to how their brethren in West Malaysia made it in dollars and cents.
Zainal Epi of Free Malaysia Today wrote an analytical piece on how the BN is losing its grip on the Malays by the day. He said:
In another report HERE, Wong Ho Leng said that voters from outside Sibu will be the deciding factor in the by-election. He said that some voters, especially the young voters, who are working outside the constituency possibly cannot make it tomorrow are the ones who will determine who will be the next MP for Sibu," he said. The Sarawak Election Commission said that outstation voters represented about 10% to 15% of the total 54,695 registered voters.For BN, losing the Malay votes would mean trouble as its target of winning over the Chinese electorate seems to be a far-off dream. Words had it that BN has succeeded in getting about 38% of the Chinese votes, well below the 43% mark.
With Malay voters in Nangka rapidly slipping away, BN is indeed facing an uphill battle to retain Sibu.
As for the Bumiputera voters, the BN seems to be getting a big chunk of them despite the full-scale attack from the DAP. The 10,000-odd voters residing in the 92 longhouses seem to be backing the BN warhorse, although some are openly voicing support for the DAP.
The race is too close to call but if the turnout of voters is 65% and above, the BN is said to have a slight chance of standing as the winner on the podium of the port town of Sibu.
Where the Chinese vote is concerned, I theorize that more Chinese will support DAP than BN as compared to the previous election but this alone is not enough to ensure a win for DAP even though about 67% of the electorate here are Chinese.
I hypothesize that it will be the Iban vote that will make the difference as to who will win. However, judging by the statements given to various news portals, it appears that many Dayaks are fed up of being marginalized by both BN and DAP so this means that it is possible that some may not vote.
Ong Kian Ming believes that DAP will win Sibu by 500 votes. In a forecast published HERE he said:
The level of Iban support for SUPP was approximately 80% in 2008. A 1% swing in the Iban vote will result in a change of 100 votes in the overall majority. If some of the salient local issues, including the 'Allah' issue - which is much more likely to affect the practice of Christianity among the BM-speaking Iban compared to the Chinese- and English-speaking Foochow - have traction, it would not be surprising to see a slight decrease in the Iban vote.
My prediction is based on a swing of 5% in the Iban vote against SUPP, and in my opinion, it's a rather conservative estimate.
I assume that there is no change in the level of Melanau/Malay support for SUPP, which will remain at a high level of approximately 85% - the 2008 level. It would be naive to think that PAS would be able to swing any Melanau/Malay support to the DAP candidate given that it has almost no grassroots presence in Sarawak.
Finally, I also assume that BN will have a dominant 2,500-vote majority in the postal votes, which was what it was in 2008. This majority may shift slightly because the latest electoral roll shows that there are slightly over 2,500 postal voters in the constituency. Read more HERE.
In a separate report HERE, a local BN leader admitted that SUPP may once again win Sibu with the help of the Malay/Melanau and Iban community and believed they had high chances of retaining the Malay and Iban votes. It is understood that BN is only aiming to maintain the support that it received in 2008 to retain the seat.
Well, I am not as optimistic. The situation is not as simple because the uncertainty in the air, thanks to the many disturbing issues, could mean that anything could happen. I predict that this will be a VERY close fight and a lot will depend on the extend of which Chinese support DAP and whether the others are willing to choose DAP even though they may not have done much for them in the past under the circumstances. It is better to give DAP a chance than to continue to support the status quo and be subjected to a continuation or perpetuation of the existing problems. Definitely, a win means a great deal for both DAP and BN and I am sure that campaigning will reach a frenzy by tonight.
May the Sibu voters vote wisely and herald change for Sibu, Sarawak and of course, the rest of us who are waiting with bated breath! Let's pray for a miracle!!
Boleh Man When the going gets tough, the tough get going.
When the offers become tempting, we see PKR MPs jumping!